Stephen Nulty 4:18 pm on December 12, 2018
Tags: , houses of commons, , therea may   

Wednesday 12 December 2018 – UK Prime Minister to face vote of no confidence from her own MPs over Brexit

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In a dramatic turn of events in Parliament this morning it has been announced that the 48 letters of support for a vote of no-confidence in the Prime Minister from her own MPs has been achieved and therefore, this evening, she will face a vote of no confidence.  If she loses the vote she will be obligated to trigger a leadership election in which she cannot stand. If she wins the vote she will undoubtedly stay as Prime Minister and would be immune from another challenge for at least a year. If there is a leadership contest the candidates will be scrutinised by their fellow Conservative MPs and whittled down to just two remaining candidates, whose names will then be put to the wider Party membership, as well as the Conservative MPs in parliament, to decide on the winner and the new Prime Minister.  If there are only two candidates in the beginning the vote will go directly to the final vote.  Alternatively, if Mrs May chooses to resign – which she said she won’t – it would automatically trigger the leadership election process. Whatever happens we should know the result before the end of today, Wednesday, with the election process for  a new leader if necessary taking a few weeks at least.

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Theresa May gave a robust and defiant statement on the steps of 10 Downing Street in which she declared that “a leadership election would not change the fundamentals of the negotiation or the Parliamentary arithmetic. Weeks spent tearing ourselves apart will only create more division just as we should be standing together to serve our country. None of that would be in the national interest.”


She also claimed that she was making progress in her talks with EU leaders and vowed to “deliver on the referendum vote and seize the opportunities that lie ahead,” adding that the Conservatives had to build a “country that works for  everyone” and deliver “the Brexit people voted for.”


She added: “I have devoted myself unsparingly to these tasks ever since I became prime minister and I stand ready to finish the job.”


Mrs May  became Prime Minister after winning the leadership election following David Cameron’s resignation in June 2016 after the British public voted to leave the European Union.  The following year, she called a snap General Election expecting to increase the Conservative majority in the House of Commons and strengthen her stance for the Brexit negotiations.  Instead of increasing her majority she lost the narrow majority the Conservatives had unexpectedly gained after the 2015 General Election. She was only able to remain as Prime Minister by joining forces with the repugnant Democratic Unionist Party in Northern Ireland.  Far from strengthening her Brexit hand, the 2017 election weakened it and weakened  her.


All this has wreaked havoc with the UK’s negotiations with the EU over what type of Brexit we will have when we finally leave the European Union.  That is scheduled for the end of March 2019 and yet we still don’t have a final agreement on how the UK will be treated on trade, immigration, borders and everything else once we are outside the EU.  There has been bitter in-fighting among Tory MPs, with many resigning in protest, at the state of the negotiations and there have also been opposing calls for the UK to hold a second referendum as to whether we should leave the EU as the British public were lied to and misled during the 2016 referendum campaign.  Others have called for an extension of the negotiation period beyond March 2019 and others have called for an outright cancellation of Article 50 which is the EU clause governing the withdrawal of a state from the Union.


The result is that the public are sick and tired of hearing about Brexit and the lack of progress or a meaningful statement from all sides in the debate.  We have less than four months before the EU could simply kick us out to fend for ourselves without any negotiated links with the EU.  And in the meantime the politicians continue to argue and the British public are increasingly showing support for Brexit to be cancelled, or for a second referendum, or for an extension to further negotiate the terms of withdrawal.


Common sense at the time of the 2016 Referendum was clearly indicating  that all this confusion over Brexit would happen, but many who voted to Leave were perhaps swept up on the nationalistic propaganda that was put out by the Leave campaign, along with the lies it perpetuated – such as claiming that we could give hundreds of millions to the funding of the NHS if we left the EU.  As for many Remainers, there was complacency and a disbelief that the public would vote to leave the EU.  One thing we can be almost sure about is that regardless of whether Theresa May is ousted as Tory leader, whether there is a second referendum, whether there is a new leader of the Tory Party or whether there is a General Election the confusion and chaos over Brexit will continue unabated.


An even more disturbing thought than May keeping her job tonight is who might replace her if there is a leadership election.  With names such as Boris Johnson, Michael Gove, Dominic Raab, Sajid Javid, Jeremy Hunt, David Davis, Amber Rudd and even Esther McVey and Jacob Rees-Mogg in the running the prospects of whom may be the next Prime Minister perhaps makes Mrs May seem not so bad. As I write this post Mrs May is awaiting the result of the voting and her desperation to remain in office has been reflected by a promise she has made to her MPs that she will stand down before the next General Election if she wins the vote of no confidence.  The next election is not due until 2022.


Reports suggest that all 317 Conservative MPs took part in the vote, including members reinstated to enable them to vote after being suspended for sexual misconduct allegations. More to follow in my blog tomorrow.

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