The on-off summit between US president Donald Trump and Korean leader Kim Jong-un is, at the moment, on course to take place. In anticipation of Tuesday’s meeting in Singapore, Kim Jong-un has arrived in the country (above) to prepare and wait for the US president, who for the last few days has been having a rough time at the G7 summit in Canada. Mr Trump is scheduled to arrive in Singapore later today for what will be the first meeting between a North Korean leader and a sitting US president. Before leaving Canada, Mr Trump said that the summit would be a “one-time shot” for peace and said that he and Mr Kim were “in unknown territory in the truest sense.”
Photo: Kim Jong-un is greeted by Singapore’s foreign minister Vivian Balakrishnan
Although the summit now seems to be a certainty after months of doubts about whether it would go ahead, the summit has no guarantee that it will be successful. The United States has the goal of ensuring that North Korea gives up its nuclear weapons, while the North presently believes that possession of nuclear weapons is a guarantee of the survival of the Kim regime. Furthermore, the North undoubtedly has the desire to see the removal of US troops from South Korea, which in the present climate is going to be difficult for the Americans to agree to. The chances of any progress at the summit is also hampered by the personality of Mr Trump, who the other day said that he would know if the summit would be a success or not in the first minute of his meeting with Mr Kim. This seems to suggest that Mr Trump believes he has the ability to sum up all eventualities and possibilities within a minute! Such arrogance isn’t what is required at such a high-level diplomatic venture. You cannot expect to achieve anything without talking, without compromise and negotiation. Mr Trump’s comment brings into question whether he has the temperament and skills required to negotiate at the summit. Mr Trump is clearly trying to show that he is the big deal maker, but his ego and megalomania is in reality an obstacle to the diplomacy that is required in Singapore (below).
It seems, however, that Mr Trump is going to the Singapore summit with the view that his meeting with Mr Kim is a prelude to progress, a sort of “get-to-know situation” as the President has said. This route may be more productive. If Mr Trump can simply get through the summit with Mr Kim without a major blunder, then it could be left to experienced diplomats and experts to actually negotiate the details of any deal on the ultimate goal of the denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula. Both sides appear to want this to happen, but it seems a long way off despite the positive act of this summit. The North has achieved its goal of building a nuclear arsenal capable to striking the United States mainland and now . wants to focus on its economy which is in turmoil after decades of sanctions and mismanagement. The US wants them to get rid of their nuclear weapons programme in return, no doubt, for easing or lifting of sanctions. The North, however, regards the possession of nuclear weapons as the reason this summit is happening and regard them as essential to the survival of the Kim dynasty. It will be difficult for the Americans to persuade them to surrender them after they’ve spent decades trying to develop them. Furthermore, the North will probably want the Americans to withdraw their troops from South Korea, which may be difficult for the Americans to agree to.
One thing that may be a positive sign of progress at the summit is a formal ending of the Korean War. Despite a truce in 1953 which brought the three-year war to an end, no armistice was signed which technically means that the two Koreas are still at war some 65 years after the conflict ended. Signing a formal declaration of peace would go a long way to easing tensions. However, as Mr Trump has acknowledged, this would be the “easy part” and that it is no guarantee of progress on more vital areas. Signing a formal ending to the Korean War is, in my opinion, the best we can realistically expect from this short summit. If that happens and Mr Trump and Mr Kim come away from Singapore without either having lost the plot or made a diplomatic blunder then the summit will have been a success. As Mr Trump suggests, Tuesday’s summit should perhaps be regarded as the opening gambit in what could be a long process of progress towards the ultimate goal of the denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula.
Sources & Further Reading
- Trump Kim summit: North Korean leader arrives in Singapore – BBC – Sunday 10 June 2018
- Donald Trump prefers unscripted Kim summit in Singapore to G7 ritual – BBC – Sunday 10 June 2018 – by Jon Sopel, North America Reporter
- The king of Pyongyang – BBC – 23 May 2018 – by Rupert Wingfield-Hayes and Joy Roxas. Edited by Finlo Rohrer
- Why North Korea’s Kim Jong-un feels comfortable with Singapore – BBC – 11 May 2018 – by Karishma Vaswani, Asia business correspondent
- Kim Jong-un arrives in Singapore for summit with Donald Trump – The Guardian – Sunday 10 June 2018 – by Guardian Staff and Agencies
STEPHEN NULTY 